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What will the budget mean to you?

What will the budget mean to you.JPG

Working Australians have been promised bigger than expected tax cuts along with billions in increased spending on health and welfare for young and old. This was all made possible as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered the good news that the Budget will soon be back in surplus for the first time since the GFC.

The only hitch is that Australians will have to wait until after the federal election, expected in May, to find out if these promises will stand.

The Government is promising to maintain or increase spending in most areas without resorting to tax increases. What’s more, it’s bringing forward planned income tax cuts and reducing the tax burden on small businesses.

Tax relief for middle Australia

Overall, 10 million Australians will receive a tax cut, with those in the middle benefiting the most. Factoring in the tax cuts announced in last year’s budget, an individual earning up to $48,000 will receive a maximum return of $480, while one earning $48,001-$90,000 will be $1,080 ahead.

Those earning $90,001 - $126,000 receive a relatively small tax cut of a few hundred dollars at best, and there’s no tax relief at all for those earning more than $126,000.

The Government has reiterated its intention to further flatten tax rates, which would benefit those on higher incomes. However, this isn’t scheduled to happen until 2024-25.

A helping hand for small business

There’s also good news for the nation’s small business owners. The company tax rate is shifting from 27.5 per cent in 2019-20 to 26 per cent in 2020-21 and 25 per cent in 2021-22.

The popular instant asset write-off is increasing from $25,000 to $30,000. Plus, it can now be used for multiple assets instead of just one every financial year. What’s more, small to medium businesses with turnover up to $50 million are now eligible, up from $10 million previously as of April 2nd 2019.

A selection of super tweaks

With the peak baby-boomer retirement years looming, the Government has introduced some modest changes to make it easier for older Australians to put a bit extra into their – or their partner’s – super.

From July 2020, those aged 65 and 66 will be able to make concessional and non-concessional top-ups to their super without meeting the work test. This test had required individuals to have worked at least 40 hours over a 30-day period to be eligible to make top-ups.

The ‘bring forward’ arrangements, which currently allow those under the age of 65 to make three years’ worth of non-concessional contributions (capped at $100,000 a year), will be extended to those aged 65 and 66. Also, the age limit for making contributions to a spouse’s super has been raised from 69 to 74.

Health, welfare and job training

A combination of higher tax receipts, rising commodity prices and restrained spending has given the Government money to spend on health and welfare for young and old.

Money is being directed to increasing the number of home care packages for the elderly by 10,000 and listing more medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme.

Four-year-olds will receive universal preschool access, while funding will be provided to teach their older sibling to “sensibly and safely use the web”.

Younger Australians will be able to apply for one of the 80,000 apprenticeships that will be created over the next five years. And almost half a billion is being spent to improve young Australians’ mental health.

The Treasurer announced the 2019 Budget was designed to encourage Australians to “have a go” and allow them to “get a fair go”. The coming weeks will reveal whether he has done enough to secure the support of voters for another term in Government.

It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

Plugging in to technology stocks

Plugging in to technology stocks.JPG

On August 2, Apple became the world’s first company to reach US$1 trillion in market value. It took 42 years to get there from humble beginnings in an LA garage, but a handful of younger technology companies are already nipping at its heels. Collectively they are known as the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. 

What do they have in common? All have used innovative technology to create new markets, often beginning with a single product or service. Think Apple’s early desktop computers, Amazon’s online book retailer, Netflix’s streaming service, Facebook’s social network and Google’s search engine. 

According to Forbes magazine, these tech giants have become so much a part of everyday life that their products or services are regarded almost as utilities, as essential to modern living as power or water.(i) They have also used technology and digital transformation to redefine customer experience in a way that is leaving traditional companies behind. 

While their products and services may be cutting edge, their investment appeal is old school. Legendary investor Warren Buffett has been a major Apple shareholder for some time. He is known to look for stocks with reliable, long-term earnings at an attractive price with a strong ‘moat’. A moat might be a brand name, key products or high barriers to exit. Switch your iPhone for another brand for example, and you lose your iTunes music library and countless apps you downloaded. 

China unleashes BATs

While the FAANGs are US-based, they face stiff competition in the global tech stakes from China’s BATs. Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent may not be household names in Australia, but they deserve to be on investors’ radar because they are a dominant market force not just in China but increasingly elsewhere as well. 

Hong Kong-listed Tencent Holdings is known as China’s equivalent of Facebook. Tencent was the first Asian company to reach the US$500 billion stock market valuation mark. It’s WeChat social media platform recently reached an eye-popping one billion members and it’s also involved in online gaming, music, e-commerce and smartphones. 

Alibaba (China’s Amazon plus eBay) is the world’s biggest retailer. It’s New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing in 2014 was the world’s biggest and this year it became the second Asian company to be valued at more than US$500 billion. 

Baidu (China’s Google) is the second most widely used search engine in the world. It’s also moving into mapping, artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles. And these are just the biggest of many emerging Chinese tech stocks. 

Opportunities and challenges

The tech giants are also beginning to expand into new business areas such as cloud storage, music and video streaming. Some are also growing by acquisition, with Facebook buying What’s App and Microsoft buying LinkedIn. 

Yet big does not necessarily deliver success. Facebook’s share price recently fell 19 per cent in a day. The sell-off was due partly to concerns about the company’s ability to deal with privacy issues, but also to a flattening out of user numbers. China’s BATs also face challenges from the worsening trade dispute with the US. 

So how can Australian investors participate in the dynamic technology sector without getting burnt? 

Getting down to business

Diversification is the key to investing in the world’s leading tech stocks, while minimising the risk of individual companies performing poorly. The simplest way to gain exposure is via a traditional managed fund or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) which can be bought and sold on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) like individual shares. We've written about ETFs previously.

For the broadest exposure there are global technology funds. A popular way to access the FAANGs plus Microsoft and others is to choose a fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index. Although the US-based Nasdaq exchange is home to a wide range of companies, it is well known for tech stocks. 

Tech companies are often seen as exciting, but investors would do well to follow Buffett’s lead and make sure that the fundamentals are sound, looking at their financial health and ability to deliver sustainable returns. If you would like to talk about your investment strategy, give us a call. 

i ‘Apple and the rise of the trillion dollar firm’, 6 August 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/dantedisparte/2018/08/06/apple-and-the-rise-of-the-trillion-dollar-firm/#6eecde0c631d

Australia still punching above its weight

Australia, take a bow. We are on the brink of overtaking the Netherlands’ record for the longest period without a recession and very close to pulling off an even greater feat. Not only have we survived the end of an extraordinary mining boom without going bust, but the economy is showing signs of renewed growth.

Many economic commentators feared the worst when Australia’s economic growth went backwards by 0.5 per cent in the 2016 September quarter. But as the latest Bureau of Statistics national accounts show, the economy rebounded by 1.1 per cent in the December quarter, taking the annual rate of GDP growth to 2.4 per cent.

You could almost hear the sighs of relief from economic commentators, as two negative quarters are the technical definition of recession. Australia has navigated 102 quarters – or 25 and a half years - without recession and it’s highly likely we’ll beat the Netherlands’ record of 103 quarters this financial year.

Not only are we breathing down the neck of the Dutch, but we’ve avoided the worst effects of the so-called “Dutch disease” where a boom in one part of the economy results in terminal decline in other sectors.
 

How did we pull it off?

There are several reasons growth rebounded so convincingly in 2016, that augur well for the future.

After falling off a cliff since their peak in 2011, prices of some of our major commodity exports such as coal and iron ore rose sharply last year. Export volumes are also on the rise as resource projects are completed and the lower dollar fuels overseas demand for our services such as education and tourism.

This resulted in a striking improvement in our terms of trade - the prices we receive for our exports compared with the prices we pay for imports - which improved by 9 per cent in the December quarter and almost 16 per cent for the year.

Wages growth has fallen too, which is good for the corporate sector because it helps improve our international competitiveness, but not so good for consumers. Company profits as a share of GDP rose 16.5 per cent in the December quarter, while wages’ share of GDP fell by 0.5 per cent.

There was more good news in the form of new business investment spending which grew by almost 2 per cent in the December quarter. While mining investment continues to decline, non-mining business investment is showing positive signs of taking up the slack.
 

Buoyant company profits

The positive economic report card owes a lot to our healthy corporate sector. The December half reporting season revealed that 69 per cent of companies increased profits, well above the norm, with a median increase of 4 per cent year on year. i

While that’s good news for the economy, the focus on dividends also gave investors plenty to smile about. Close to 90 per cent of companies paid a dividend and 82 per cent of those lifted or maintained their payout. Over the next few months, more than $22 billion in dividends will be paid to shareholders. It’s not just direct share investors who benefit; the millions of Mums and Dads who are members of superannuation funds will receive a boost in annual returns. As the graph shows, the dividend yield on Australian shares is currently around 4 per cent, well above inflation of 1.5 per cent and the interest rates available on bank deposits.
 

Yields on shares

Source: Iress, CommSec

Source: Iress, CommSec

Money isn’t everything…

As important as the economy is, it doesn’t tell us everything about the wellbeing of ordinary Australians. The Fairfax-Lateral Economics wellbeing index – which monitors the collective state of the nation based a broader range of indicators – grew by 5.8 per cent in 2016, more than twice the 2.4 per cent growth in the economy. ii

National income - to households, business and government - rose strongly although business received the lion’s share of growth. There was also a big lift in our skills and knowledge base, thanks to growing numbers of adults with higher qualifications.

We fared less well on measures of inequality, health, work satisfaction and the environment. Some of the challenges Australia faces looking ahead are around issues such as underemployment, housing affordability and equal access to quality health services and education.
 

…but it helps

On balance, Australia has more reason than most nations to feel upbeat. The unwinding of the mining investment boom is almost over and the surge in resource exports is beginning to pay dividends. Non-mining investment and public spending on infrastructure are finally gaining momentum. And economic growth is on track to return to 3 per cent this year, as we edge towards 26 years without recession.

If you would like to discuss the contents of this article in relation to your investment strategy, don’t hesitate to give us a call.
 

i Dividends start flowing’, CommSec, 13 March 2017 https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ReportingSeason/February2017/Eco_insight.13.03.2017dividends-start-flowing.pdf

ii Wellbeing index reveals life got better for Australians in 2016’, Matt Wade, SMH, 3 March 2017, http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/wellbeing-index-reveals-life-got-better-for-australians-in-2016-20170303-guq6ob.html