GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025
File: GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025
Duration: 02:43
Date: November 05, 2025
00:01 GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025
00:04 The September quarter saw cautious optimism, with cooling inflation, steady central banks, and signs of stabilizing global growth.
00:11 Current Price of Gold and Its Implications
00:15 Gold surged to record highs this quarter, driven by central bank buying, investor demand, and Middle East tensions.
00:22 With exports set to hit A$60 billion by 2025–26, gold is poised to become Australia’s second-largest resource export, boosting income amid weaker demand for iron ore and lithium.
00:30 The US Outlook on Interest Rates
00:34 The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% in September as inflation neared target. Growth is steady, with another small cut possible if job numbers soften.
00:41 US markets were quiet, but talk of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods late in the quarter unsettled investors and highlighted ongoing geopolitical risks.
00:48 Evaluations of Equities and Market Performance
00:52 The ASX 200 fell 1.8% to about 8,880 points this quarter.
00:57 Financials, led by ANZ hitting a decade high, stood out, while tech, property, and healthcare lagged. Investors remain cautious, favouring quality and reliable income over speculation.
01:04 Prospects for Interest Rate Movements in Australia
01:08 The RBA has held the cash rate at 3.6% since May as inflation eases to 2.1% and unemployment stays steady at 4.2%.
01:14 They’re waiting to see clear signs inflation is under control before cutting rates, which markets expect might happen by mid-2026.
01:21 The Impact of Oil Prices on the Australian Economy
01:25 Oil prices swung between US$82 and US$95 a barrel this quarter, driven by OPEC+ cuts and Middle East tensions.
01:31 For Australia, higher prices boost LNG exports but raise costs and inflation risks. The RBA is keeping a close eye to ensure fuel prices don’t stall inflation progress.
01:38 A few policy and market stories stood out this quarter:
01:42 - The Federal Government will tax only realised gains on superfunds over $3 million, at 30% for amounts between $3 million and $10 million, and 40% for amounts above $10 million.
01:49 - Critical-minerals policy: Canberra began consultations on a $1.2 billion stockpile to strengthen resource security.
01:55 - Industrial support: A A$600 million package was announced to keep Glencore’s Mount Isa smelter and Townsville refinery operating, protecting regional jobs.
02:02 - Currency movements: The Australian dollar traded between US63c and US67c, supported by higher commodity prices but constrained by global uncertainty.
02:10 Each of these developments carries implications for investors and the broader economy — particularly in sectors tied to exports, manufacturing, and energy.
02:16 Looking Ahead
02:21 As 2025 ends, the global economy is finding balance with easing inflation and steady jobs.
02:27 Central banks in the US and Australia are taking a cautious approach.
02:32 Investors are advised to stay diversified, focus on quality, and look past short-term volatility as the economy steadies into 2026.