Quarterly Economic Update April - June 2025
File: GW Market & Economic update – April – June 2025
Duration: 02:40
Date: August 06, 2025
00:01 GW Market & Economic update – April – June 2025
00:04 As Q3 begins, investors face a ‘wall of worry’ with rate decisions, US-Europe tariffs, Middle East tensions, and upcoming corporate earnings reports all in focus.
00:13 War in the Middle East
00:18 Middle East tensions escalated into war in June, spiking oil prices and driving the US dollar to a three-year low.
00:26 Experts warn prolonged conflict could cut Australia’s growth by 0.2% if oil supply is disrupted, especially after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
00:33 US-Europe Trade Tensions
00:37 Trump imposed global tariffs on April 2, then paused those on Europe for 90 days—set to expire August 1.
00:43 With no deal reached, tariffs up to 50% will resume. In response, the EU plans retaliatory duties on €95 billion of U.S. goods. A resolution remains uncertain.
00:52 Fuel Price Outlook
00:56 The Iran-Israel war drove oil prices up, pushing Australian fuel prices 10–15 cents higher.
01:02 With oil fueling inflation and a gas price cap ending in July, fears of renewed inflation are growing.
01:08 Interest Rates
01:12 In May, the RBA cut rates by 0.25% to 3.85% as inflation eased.
01:17 Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed held rates at 4.5% in June, opting for a cautious, data-driven stance.
01:23 Cryptocurrencies and Precious Metals
01:27 Bitcoin neared US$99,000 in late June as markets weighed rate cuts against Middle East tensions.
01:33 Gold held steady around US$3,300, despite uncertainty, after a strong rally since late 2022.
01:40 Equity Market Performance
01:44 Australia’s sharemarket rose 1.3% for the quarter, despite sharp swings—falling over 10% in April before rebounding 20% by June 30.
01:52 U.S. markets followed a similar path, ending with their strongest quarter of the year.
01:57 Housing Market Update
02:01 National house prices rose for a fifth straight month in June, driven by strong demand and boosted buyer confidence after the rate cut, despite affordability pressures.
02:09 Labour Market and Consumer Sentiment
02:14 Unemployment held at 3.8% in May, with job vacancies still high.
02:19 Consumer confidence edged up in June, despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
02:24 Looking Ahead
02:28 As Q3 begins, investors face a ‘wall of worry’ with rate decisions, US-Europe tariffs, Middle East tensions, and upcoming corporate earnings reports all in focus.